BULL RUN EXPECTED...

19th Jan 2010

BULL RUN EXPECTED, MY MOVE IS TO JOG, STOP, TAKE A BREATH, WALK BRISKLY, STOP, JOG - ALL THE TIME TRY AND ENERGISE MY PORTFOLIO, BOOK PROFITS AT DECENT LEVELS, TRY NOT TO BE GREEDY, PICK UP VALUE STOCKS STILL AVAILABLE AT A REASONABLE PRICE , DISCARD WEAKER STOCKS - ALL THIS IN THE CASH DELIVERY MARKET. NO INTRADAY STRATEGIES RIGHT NOW AND YES, OPTIONS ( CALL & PUT) BUT WITH CARE, IDEA BEING TO BET ON THE BULL RUN THAT I EXPECT WHICH BY MARCH 2010 SHOULD TAKE THE SENSEX TO AROUND 19K LEVELS.

AS YOU KNOW, I DON'T BELIEVE IN GETTING RICH OVERNIGHT OR OVER THE QUARTER, CREATING WEALTH TAKES TIME & EFFORT AND PRESERVING WEALTH REQUIRES TACT, COMMON SENSE AS WELL AS ABSOLUTE PRACTICAL SENSE OF OUR UNDERSTANDING OF WEALTH ITSELF.

OVERALL, MY STRATEGY AS A RETAIL INVESTOR FOR THE NEXT 2 MONTHS IS QUITE LIKELY TO BE - SELL 4 SHARES AT A DECENT PROFIT AND BUY 1, BUT AT A REASONABLE RATE.
SOME STOCKS I WOULD LOVE TO BUY AT CURRENT PRICE LEVELS:
1) TANLA SOLUTIONS @RS 63
2) STERLING BIOTECH @ RS 103
3) ORIENT PAPER @ RS 46
4) TATA COMM @ RS 357
5) POWERGRID @ RS 115

Note: all comments, notes, pointers are my personal observations and they are just meant to share some knowledge with few friends & associates, these comments are in no way any indicator to buy or sell stocks or commodities in the market ( fellow bloggers have to use their own assessment skills in case they wish to invest in the capital markets.

Happy Investing!

Your's Truly,
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident - Investments & Realty
Email:ibrahim.casubhoy@casubhoy-trident.com

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS - THE WAY FORWARD NOW!

Property rates in Mumbai have gone up almost 15% to 20% in the last 3 months, a 2BHK in Bhakti Park, wadala, which costed around Rs 80 lacs all inclusive is going for Rs 1 crore!

Investors are a confused lot - should they enter at these rates or should they wait for a correction? what if there is no correction and the rates go up another 15% to 20% in the next one year, then one will miss the opportunity.

Actual buyers, who are wanting a home of their own are the ones actually buying, for they want a home in the heart of Mumbai and this home is for keeps, so even if the rates are up by 15% to 20% - They have to buy a home, so they buy.

My sense is that property rates are quite high right now, particularly in the areas my company operates in ( wadala, sion, dadar, Chembur & Ghatkopar) But again my observation is that certain areas where we also operate like Kurla, bhandup, vikroli Nahur and Thane are having some projects which are reasonanble priced in these suburbs as of now.

So, I am advising clients that if wadala, Sion, chembur looks out of bounds with their given budget and amt of housing loan sanctioned, they should explore projects in Kurla, Bhandup, Vikroli, Nahur and Thane.


Happy Investing!

Your's Truly,
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident - Investments & Realty
Email:ibrahim.casubhoy@casubhoy-trident.com

PICKING THE RIGHT STOCKS

well the sensex is at around 17k and looks like it is going to be range bound between 16500 to 17200 for some more time, with what the situation offers, I am offloading stocks which have not given me decent returns of atleast 15% p.a and I am also offloading stocks which I invested in almost a year back, but still my returns are atleast 5% in the negative. I am booking that 5% loss and unlocking my capital invested in those stocks.

Now, I am focussing on those midcap and small cap companies who have done excellent as far as their ROCE goes( Return on Capital employed)some of great interest to me are:

1) Oil country tubular
2) Orient paper industries
3) IL & FS Investment Managers Ltd
4) Praj Industries
5) Rain Commodities &
6) Zydus wellness

I am also looking at telecommunication cos like Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications & Idea - Their stock prices look quite right to me, so I am buying at dips and accumulating.

well, I find the capital markets extremely challenging and fulfilling, it brings out the best in me in terms of my alertness, analysis, and risk taking appetite.

I still have a lot to learn and this is going to be a contineous process!

Happy Investing!

Your's Truly,
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident - Investments & Realty
Email:ibrahim.casubhoy@casubhoy-trident.com

HUMPTY DUMPTY SAT ON A WALL, HUMPTY DUMPTY HAD A GREAT FALL!

Dear friends:

with the stock markets falling they way they are, one feels, are we again going to see the levels of October 2008?

well, from a high of 21000 - in Jan 2008 to a low of 7800 in October 2008, many of us had lost so much, we were just licking our wounds, then slowly over the next 1 year, the sensex rose to 17200 some 10 days back and now at around 15500 today.

to make sense of this all in my head, my sense is that in the falling markets, I have taken a calculated risk and invested in value stocks like Praj Ind, guj nre coke, neyveli lignite, oil india tubular, ruchi soya and hindalco, i think they were available at an affordable price as of now.

but if the markets fall further in the next one week or so from now then though I would be very tempted to buy some blue chips at good affordable prices, I will have to hold my horses, mainly because, I would have lost quite a lot on my existing portfolio and will not be able to afford mounting losses and it would not be wise to put all my eggs in one basket( the stock markets) - I would look at alternate vehicles other than the stock markets in such bearish conditions!

Happy Investing!

Your's Truly,
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident - Investments & Realty
Email:ibrahim.casubhoy@casubhoy-trident.com

indian stock markets are falling - but slowly, what next?

29th Oct 09
As we observe the sensex shedding almost 1000 points from near 17200 to around 16200 now, stocks that were looking expensive are suddenly a bit cheap, but many clients say, we want to wait for it to fall further, some are off the opinion that one should buy in. well my sense is that yes, I would continue to invest in the stock markets, but would look at good value for my investments, for myself in the last 3 days that the sensex has been shedding, I have bought stocks of IDEA, Reliance Comm., Praj Ind, Sterling Biotech, MRPL & REC.
Though my profit margins on Marico and NTPC, these couple of stocks I had holded with a long-term view were down almost 10%, I decided to book profits to partly pay for my new acquisitions.
My rationale is in such scenarios, don't look at what profits you lost because you did not sell earlier, book decent profits on a stock right now, as long as you made some decent profit and go and fish for some real good stocks which are just available at more or less a good price.

well, waiting for Friday now, let's see what it has in store for us.

Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy - Trident

REAL ESTATE INFO FOR ALL IN MUMBAI

Dear all:
Wadala where I stay presently, has some very good projects for residential stay, also thane Godbunder road has some good projects coming up by very good developers. for more info do write in, also if you want to discuss residential & commercial projects anywhere in Mumbai and want some info, do write in. As official channel partners of Artha Money ( property division) - A Times of India Group Company, I can source out property details from my Principles - Artha Money, which may be useful, if you are looking for residential or commercial property - on outright basis or on rent.
Regards,
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident
Investments & Realty.

CERTIFICATE PROGRAM IN CAPITAL MARKETS FM THE BSE TRAINING CENTRE

Dear all:

I have enrolled for a 3 month certificate program on capital markets (CPCM) offered by the BSE Training institute they have a tie-up with JBIMS. It is a very good part-time program to brush up our knowledge on the capital markets.

this course starts from the 3rd of November 2009, 6.00 p.m. to 7.30p.m. - for more info on this program and a variety of programs offered by the BSE, log on to: www.bsseindia.com , look for the BSE traning centre link.
Happy Investing!
Ibrahim Casubhoy
Casubhoy Trident - Investments & Realty.